Sally Auld — NAB’s Chief Economist — explained something that most rate speculation misses entirely.
The RBA is not choosing to raise rates. They are legislatively required to act when inflation sits above the 2–3 per cent target band. That is not a policy preference. It is the mechanism. The Reserve Bank Act 1959 and the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy create the obligation. Everything else is commentary.
TL;DR
Key takeaways from NAB’s commercial broker economics webinar. RBA outlook, lending conditions, and what the signals mean for Australian property investors.
Government spending is currently competing with private capital for the same labour, the same materials, the same resources. That competition suppresses private sector productivity and drives inflation upward. Inflation sits above the band. The legislation requires a response.
We have had one 0.25 per cent rise this year. Most banks passed it on the same week. NAB’s economists are forecasting two more.
None of that is the number that matters most.
The Assessment Rate
When a lender evaluates a borrowing application — any borrowing application, personal or SMSF or trust — they do not use the actual interest rate. They use an assessment rate.
APRA’s mandatory serviceability buffer adds 3 percentage points to the applicable rate. This is set under APS 220 and was reconfirmed by APRA Chair John Lonsdale as recently as July 2025.
NAB’s current base variable rate for investment lending is 6.46 per cent. The assessment rate today is 9.46 per cent.
After two more quarter-point rises, that number reaches 9.96 per cent.
Every borrowing decision in the country — every new loan, every refinance, every equity release — is already being stress-tested at a rate almost a full percentage point higher than the headline. And most borrowers have never been told what that number is.
Why This Matters Across Structures
For an investor holding a single property in a single name, this is a straightforward serviceability question.
For an investor holding across multiple structures — personal name, family trust, SMSF LRBA, company — the picture is less visible and less uniform.
Each structure sits at a different serviceability position. The SMSF adds rental shading on top of the assessment rate. The trust has distribution treatment that varies by lender. The company investment runs on commercial terms with different benchmarks.
What experienced investors miss when they are managing by instinct rather than system: they check one structure, feel satisfied, and assume the portfolio is fine.
The assumption is doing work that a calculation should be doing.
One Check Worth Running
Run a cross-structure serviceability assessment — every active borrowing entity, separately, at 9.46 per cent.
Personal name. Trust. SMSF LRBA. Company. Each one independently.
If any structure returns a negative surplus at that rate, that is the decision you are making before the next hike — not after it.
If you hold equity across multiple entities and have not run this check in the last six months, the gap is not the rate environment.
The gap is the review.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Assessment Rate?
When a lender evaluates a borrowing application — any borrowing application, personal or SMSF or trust — they do not use the actual interest rate. They use an assessment rate. APRA’s mandatory serviceability buffer adds 3 percentage points to the applicable rate.
Why This Matters Across Structures?
For an investor holding a single property in a single name, this is a straightforward serviceability question. For an investor holding across multiple structures — personal name, family trust, SMSF LRBA, company — the picture is less visible and less uniform. Each structure sits at a different serviceability position.
What is one Check Worth Running?
Run a cross-structure serviceability assessment — every active borrowing entity, separately, at 9.46 per cent. Personal name. Trust. SMSF LRBA. Company. Each one independently. If any structure returns a negative surplus at that rate, that is the decision you are making before the next hike — not after it.
Want to Know What This Means for Your Strategy?
If you have $300K+ in super and want to understand how current market conditions affect your SMSF property strategy, book a strategy session. Five clients per month. The session is a paid consultation — the strategic clarity you walk away with has immediate value, whether we work together or not.
Related: SMSF Loans Perth | SMSF Property Investment | Top 7 SMSF Lenders 2026 | Perth Growth Corridors
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